
一 | 伊朗股市暗示着局势变化! 北京时间8月26日下午,据Tindex(伊朗经济指数参考),德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨155000点,突破6385000点;一度有90%的股票上涨,超过80%的股票上涨2%—3%。 ISLAMABAD -- The United Nations' World Food Program on Wednesday appealed for $19 million to provide emergency assistance to tens of thousands of people affected by a series of devastating earthquakes and aftershocks that has rocked western Afghanistan.Ana Maria Salhuana, deputy country director of the World Food Program in Afghanistan, said it was helping survivors but it urgently needed more funding because “we are having to take this food from an already severely underfunded program.”The group said it is working to provide emergency food assistance to 100,000 people in the region.“Disasters like these earthquakes pound communities who are already barely able to feed themselves back into utter destitution," the WFP said.A 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck part of western Afghanistan on Sunday, after thousands of people died and entire villages were flattened by major quakes a week earlier. It was the fourth quake the U.S. Geological Survey has measured at 6.3 magnitude in the same area in just over a week.The initial earthquakes on Oct. 7 flattened whole villages in Herat province and were among the most destructive quakes in the country’s recent history.The WFP said staffers responded within hours of the first earthquakes, distributing fortified biscuits, pulses and other food items to affected families in destroyed villages.“An estimated 25,000 buildings have been destroyed," the group said a statement. “The survivors are currently sleeping in tents next to the rubble of their homes, desperate and afraid of further earthquakes and aftershocks.”The latest quake was centered about 30 kilometers (19 miles) outside the city of Herat, the capital of Herat province, and was 6 kilometers (4 miles) below the surface, the U.S. Geological Survey said. More than 90% of the people killed were women and children, U.N. officials said. The quakes struck during the daytime, when many of the men in the region were working outdoors.Taliban officials said the earlier quakes killed more than 2,000 people across the province. The epicenter was in Zenda Jan district, where the majority of casualties and damage occurred.The WFP said affected families will need help for months with winter just weeks away. It said that if there is funding, the emergency response will be complemented by longer-term resilience programs so vulnerable communities are able to rebuild their livelihoods.The UN body was forced earlier this year to reduce the amount of food families receive and to cut 10 million people in Afghanistan from life-saving food assistance due to a massive funding shortfall. In addition to the earthquake response, the WFP also urgently needs $400 million to prepare food before winter, when communities are cut off due to snow and landslides. In Afghanistan, these include communities of women who are being increasingly pushed out of public life.The initial quake, numerous aftershocks and a third 6.3-magnitude quake on Wednesday flattened villages, destroying hundreds of mud-brick homes that could not withstand such force. Schools, health clinics and other village facilities also collapsed.Besides rubble and funerals after that devastation, there was little left of the villages in the region’s dusty hills. Survivors are struggling to come to terms with the loss of multiple family members and in many places, living residents are outnumbered by volunteers who came to search the debris and dig mass graves.Earthquakes are common in Afghanistan, where there are a number of fault lines and frequent movement among three nearby tectonic plates.。 据新华社消息,据伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台25日晚报道,伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示,根据伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡航线新达成的谅解,进入波斯湾的航线将途经伊朗水域,离开波斯湾的航线将途经阿曼和伊朗水域,任何军舰不得通过该海峡,只允许商船通行。

二 | 上午还有消息称,美国与伊朗已就停火协议条款达成共识,其内容包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行。 伊朗90%的股票上涨 伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社(IRNA)称,今天开盘后,德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨155000点,突破6385000点;一度超90%的股票上涨,超过80%的股票上涨2%—3%。这已经是伊朗股市连续第二天爆发。昨天开盘不到一个小时,德黑兰证券交易所综合指数上涨逾10万点,突破历史性的620万点。 伊朗股票的表现显然与美伊冲突局势缓和有关。巴基斯坦军方和伊朗安全部门消息人士对俄罗斯卫星通讯社透露,美国与伊朗已就停火协议条款达成共识,其内容包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行。

三 | 消息人士说:“就停火协议达成共识,其中包括霍尔木兹海峡的自由航行条款。”消息人士指出,双方预计将在未来几天内公布相关消息。据消息人士介绍,根据谅解备忘录,将启动谈判和一轮技术性会议。 新华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国广播电视台25日晚报道,伊朗外交部副部长加里巴巴迪表示,根据伊朗与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡航线新达成的谅解,进入波斯湾的航线将途经伊朗水域,离开波斯湾的航线将途经阿曼和伊朗水域,任何军舰不得通过该海峡,只允许商船通行。 加里巴巴迪表示,伊朗与阿曼之间的谅解并不意味着立即开放霍尔木兹海峡,上述通行安排为临时措施,两国后续将在30至60天内就划设一条新的永久航线展开谈判。 加里巴巴迪强调,如果伊朗的要求和条件得不到满足,霍尔木兹海峡将继续关闭。他表示,重开海峡的前提条件包括彻底结束黎巴嫩战线在内的所有战事、解除封锁、妥善解决也门问题,此外,美国必须全面履行其此前未能履行的所有承诺。加里巴巴迪说,美国声称已清除霍尔木兹海峡水雷的说法是“宣传谎言”,伊朗将打击进入该区域的美国扫雷舰。 变数依然存在 伊朗《Al-Vefaq》报编辑穆赫塔尔·哈达德表示,美国媒体报道称,美国国务卿鲁比奥表示华盛顿不会对伊朗发动新一轮打击,这表明美国有意维持目前的僵局,直至美国中期选举结束。哈达德警告说,伊朗不会被动地等待美国的时机。他认为,美国近期宣布的封锁和制裁措施并无实质新意,并表示,如果伊朗认为美国未能履行条件或不履行谅解备忘录,德黑兰将采取必要措施;他还补充说,伊朗正在调整的军事战略也体现了这一立场。

四 | 从霍尔木兹海峡的通航情况来看,周三公布的初步航运数据显示,周二有五艘散货船通过霍尔木兹海峡,与周一持平,但远低于过去十天的平均水平15艘。

五 | Kpler的初步追踪数据显示,两艘液化石油气船和一艘沥青船离开海峡,另有两艘空载成品油轮从阿曼湾进入。周一有四艘散货船通过。由于部分船舶关闭了AIS应答器,数据可能会有所修正。周二通过曼德海峡的船舶数量基本持平,为31艘,与前一天的29艘基本一致,与过去十天的平均水平大致相符。 另外,本周有四位消息人士透露,出于安全考虑,至少三家印度炼油企业和一家全球能源巨头计划停止使用伊朗新列入黑名单的船舶,其中包括用于船对船转运的船舶。 伊朗上周日公布了一份包含45艘船舶的名单,称这些船舶违反了其霍尔木兹海峡通行规则,并警告称将对任何与这些船舶进行货物转运的船舶采取行动。此举似乎旨在“干扰”阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等海湾产油国的所谓“穿梭运输”。
(文章来源:券商中国)。

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